This remains a market you need to be very cautious about position sizing.
- Gold markets fell hard Friday as the jobs number came out much stronger than anticipated.
- Because of this, the market looks likely to continue dropping a bit, as the interest rates in America started to climb.
- Remember, interest rates rising typically is bad for gold, because it becomes much easier to hold paper than it is to store physical gold.
Looking at this chart, it’s obvious that the $1800 level is a major resistance barrier, so I think we need to pay close attention to it. If we do break above here, then I think you should start to take a significant look at whether or not gold can continue to go higher. The $1815 level would wipe out the resistance and support candle that we had broken through the $1800 level with, opening up the possibility of the market going much higher. At that point, I think that we could see this market try to reach the 200-day EMA which is sitting just below the $1840 level.
On the downside, if we break down below the lows of the Friday session, it is very likely that we will attempt to get to the $1750 level, perhaps even the $1720 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, but that’s nothing new for gold. Pay attention to the US dollar, and the US Dollar Index, as it tends to have a very negative correlation.
Higher Rates, Lower Gold
The market will continue to be very noisy, but I think the one thing that probably saved gold for the day was the fact that we were heading into the weekend. Ultimately, it’ll be very interesting to see how this plays out because we have been in a very negative trend for a while, but obviously, things could change rather rapidly. Pay close attention to the 10-year note in the United States, because has a major effect on where we go next. Higher rates, lower gold. That’s not always the case, but it seems to be the case at the moment. If we were to break higher, although we could go higher for a longer-term move, it will probably be very noisy and choppy to say the least. Ultimately, this remains a market you need to be very cautious about position sizing.
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