USD/TRY Forex Signal: Stabilizing Amid Rising Inflation

Today’s recommendation on the lira against the dollar

Risk 0.50%.

Yesterday’s buy trade was activated, and half of the contracts were closed with the price rising towards the target and providing a stop loss point.

Best selling entry points

  • Entering a short position with a pending order from levels of 18.33
  • Set a stop-loss point to close the lowest support levels at 18.55.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 17.70.

Best buy entry points

  • Entering a buy position with a pending order from levels of 17.85
  • The best points for setting stop-loss are closing the highest levels of 17.54.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and continue to profit as the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 55 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support levels 18.31

Analysis of the Turkish lira

The Turkish lira stabilized near its lowest level this year against the dollar, amid noticeable interventions by the Turkish Central Bank to control the price of the lira against the dollar, and work to stabilize it at the current borders. A report published by Reuters yesterday, which includes a poll on inflation expectations in the country, showed that inflation is expected to rise to record levels of 80 percent before declining to levels of 70 percent at the end of this year. This contradicts the statements of the Turkish Minister of Finance and Treasury last week, which expected the country’s inflation to rise to 60.4%. It is noteworthy that Turkish energy imports are the main reason for the rise in inflation, as Turkey imports most of its energy needs, which rose in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is noteworthy that there are other unchanged factors that pressure the price of the lira, most notably the stimulus policy of the Turkish Central Bank, which adheres to fixing the interest rate in light of the tightening of other central banks of monetary policy.

On the technical level, the Turkish lira stabilized against the US dollar at the peak recorded during the current year, after a temporary decline during yesterday’s trading. Where the intervention of the Central Turkish in the strong movements of the pair appears on the pullbacks shown on the chart, before the pair’s rise returns. The pair is trading above the rising trend line on the four-hour time frame, shown on the chart, at the same time, the pair is trading above the highest support levels that are concentrated at 17.80 and 17.70 levels, respectively. Meanwhile, the lira is trading below the resistance levels at 18.00 and 18.32, respectively. The pair is also trading above the moving averages 50, 100 and 200, respectively, on the four-hour time frame as well as on the 60-minute time frame, indicating the bullish trend on the medium term. We expect to re-record new highs, especially with every dip in the pair, which represents a buying opportunity. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation with the need to maintain capital management.

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