The noisy behavior more likely than not will continue throughout the rest of summer.
The US dollar dropped a bit on Friday as we continue to consolidate overall. The 1.39 level has offered a bit of resistance, and the 1.3850 level has offered support. This is a market that is trying to break out of the higher levels, and it will be interesting to see whether or not the greenback can continue to go higher. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to find buyers on dips from everything I see, but we are starting to see the US dollar soften a bit from the extreme overbought condition that it had been in overall.
The 50-day EMA sits just below the 1.38 handle and is rising. I think this continues to be an area that people will be paying close attention to and could offer a certain amount of dynamic support. This is an area that has attracted a lot of attention a couple of times, it looks like the 1.40 level above is a massive barrier that is going to take some time to get above. If we can get above the 1.40 handle, then it’s likely that the market could go much higher. We had pulled back to the 61.8% and then bounced again. Because of this, one would have to think that eventually, we will continue to go higher, and the interest rate situation in America certainly does suggest that the US dollar should continue to rally.
Having said that, if the US dollar were to break down below the 1.3750 level, then it could change things, but right now it seems more likely than not we will have plenty of buyers on dips. The market has been noisy over the last couple of weeks, but that’s just a microcosm of the entire Forex world. I do believe that eventually we will go higher, but the noise is going to be quite drastic. Because of this, you will need to be cautious with your position sizing, recognizing that we will get the occasional irruption in both directions, and also should pay close attention to the 10-year note, because the interest rates in America will have a major influence on the greenback itself. The noisy behavior more likely than not will continue throughout the rest of summer.