The outlook for the pair is still bearish because of the hawkish Fed and the ongoing challenges in Europe.
Bearish View
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0522.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0522 and a take-profit at 1.0600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.035.
The EUR/USD pair rose in the overnight session as the European energy crisis escalated and after the Fed made its rate decision. The pair rose to a high of 1.0460, which was sharply higher than the intraday low of 1.035.
Fed and ECB Meetings
The ECB held an emergency meeting to address the recent volatility in the European bond market. After last week’s monetary meeting, bond yields of vulnerable countries like Italy and Greece surged. Bond yields usually move inversely to prices. As a result, the spread between the safer German bonds and riskier Italian bonds surged to 2.34%.
In its meeting, the ECB decided to create a new “anti-fragmentation instrument” to address the crisis. While the bank did not offer more details about the instrument, analysts believe that the ECB will continue buying bonds from distressed countries. This will be similar to what it did between 2010 and 2012 when it bought bonds worth 220 billion euros.
The ECB meeting happened on the same day that Russia continued flexing its muscle in the region. The country’s energy company, Gazprom, decided to reduce the gas it pumps to Italy and Germany. The company attributed the decision to technical challenges caused by sanctions. Germany, on the other hand, accused it of being a political move.
This is a notable move since Russia is the biggest supplier of natural gas to Europe. At the same time, the bloc’s natural gas prices have helped push inflation to the highest level on record.
The EUR/USD pair also rose after the Federal Reserve decided to hike interest rates by 0.75% for the first time since 1994. In a press conference, Jerome Powell warned that the bank will likely deliver another 0.75% hike in July this year even after data showed that retail sales slumped in May.
EUR/USD Forecast
The EUR/USD pair pulled back after the hawkish Fed decision. It rose to a high of 1.045, which was higher than this week’s low of 1.035. It has formed an inverted cup and handle (C&P) pattern on the four-hour chart.
The pair also remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. At the same time, the MACD has pointed upwards. The outlook for the pair is still bearish because of the hawkish Fed and the ongoing challenges in Europe. Therefore, the next key level to watch will be at 1.0300.
