Gold markets bounced a bit during the session on Tuesday to reach above the $1850 level. This is right in the middle of the recent consolidation area, and therefore it’s not a huge surprise to see this happen. Whether or not this was a reason to get involved is a completely different question, but I think at this point we are more likely than not going to see a lot of back and forth. In other words, we have nowhere to be and that makes quite a bit of sense considering that the markets are waiting on inflation numbers coming out of the United States on Friday. In other words, I think you have more of this ahead.
The 50 Day EMA above will more likely than not cause quite a bit of resistance, followed by the fact that it is sitting at the $1875 level, an area that has been important a couple of times anyway. Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of being patient enough to wait for some type of breakout. That might actually be next week, so gold is a market that I’m not that interested in. If we were to break above the $1880 level, then I think we can look into the $1900 level, followed by the $1920 level. After that, the market could go as high as $2000. The market going that high would take quite a bit of momentum though, so I’m not necessarily holding my breath for that.
If we were to turn around and break down below the lows of last week, then it’s possible that we could go down to the $1800 level. $1800 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course, an area where we have seen action in the past. It’s also worth noting that the market will be approaching a two-year uptrend line in that general vicinity as well, so I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we find buyers on any type of breakdown. After all, there are a lot of concerns when it comes to safety other, and then it does help gold overall. But the US dollar can work against it at times as well, and I think we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior more than anything else.