The price has room to rise to $33,445.
Previous BTC/USD Signal
My last signal on 18th May was not triggered, as none of the key support or resistance levels were reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $29,559, $28,607, $27,981, or $27,487.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $33,445 or $33,828.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my last analysis on 18th May that if the nearby support level at $28,607 held, the line of least resistance would be upwards, so I expected an upwards price movement to happen as the next major directional move.
I was looking to take a long trade here if we had gotten a retracement to $28,607 and a bullish bounce off that level.
This was a good call, although while the support level at $28,607 has continued to hold, the price has not made a significant rise yet. However, the upwards movement I was looking for is looking more and more likely to materialise soon.
The bullish case is slightly strengthened by the new higher support level which was established at $29,559. However, this level is far less important and likely to be strong than $28,607.
My basic approach remains the same: $28,607 is the level to watch. A daily close below that level, and preferably below $28,000, could trigger a very strong downwards move all the way to $10k or below. However, it is starting to look as if this level will hold, and it may become a long-term low, offering a great risk reward ratio on a long trade entry, although the price faces several resistance levels above $33k.
I will take a short trade if we get a daily close below $28k today.
Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of the most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm London time.