Most trading has been due to the interest rate differential in the Forex markets, so it is likely that we will continue to see this market trade in its realm.
The US dollar tried to rally a bit on Friday but gave back the gains to show signs of hesitation. The US dollar has been trying to build up a little bit of momentum to try and turn things around against the Brazilian real, which makes sense considering that a lot of the soft commodities are starting to hit a bit of selling pressure.
Keep in mind that Brazil is considered to be an emerging market, and we need a certain amount of “risk-on” to get the real to continue to strengthen. The market has also been following the fact that interest rates in Brazil are higher, and they look as if they may continue to do so. The Federal Reserve is starting to tighten a bit, but the market is oversold, to say the least. The 4.58 level underneath is going to continue to be looked at as potential support, and it is possible that even if we break down below there the 4.50 level will offer support as well.
On the upside, the 4.80 level offers resistance, and if we can break above there is likely that we could continue to go higher. The market breaking that level opens up the possibility of a move to the 5.00 level over the longer term. Keep in mind that the 50-day EMA is also in the area and dropping significantly, so I think that should be an area of resistance as well.
A lot of this is going to come down to risk appetite, but you should also keep in mind that the US dollar has been falling for so long that even though we had seen the US dollar strengthen against almost everything else. Most trading has been due to the interest rate differential in the Forex markets, so it is likely that we will continue to see this market trade in its realm. Ultimately, anything between here and 5.00 that shows signs of exhaustion could continue the longer-term trend, but in the short term, it looks as if we are trying to recover a bit. Ultimately, if we turn around and break down below the 4.50 level, then we could fall rather drastically.